Former President Donald Trump has risen above Vice President Kamala Harris in the most recent 2024 election forecast.
Reputable pollster Nate Silver provided updated data on Monday showing that Trump leads Harris by a decisive 64.4% to 35.3% in the national estimate. Trump has reached a new peak with this, solidifying his increasing momentum as a possible front-runner for the presidency.
The swing states, where Trump is expected to win significant battlegrounds that could eventually decide the election, are what further underscores the importance of this prognosis. According to polls, Trump appears to be ahead of Harris in several states that saw intense competition for the 2020 presidential election.
Here’s a breakdown of the numbers:
–Pennsylvania: Trump 65% – Harris 35%
–Michigan: Trump 55% – Harris 45%
–Wisconsin: Trump 53% – Harris 47%
–Arizona: Trump 77% – Harris 23%
–North Carolina: Trump 76% – Harris 24%
–Georgia: Trump 69% – Harris 31%
–Nevada: Trump 61% – Harris 39%
Trump’s commanding lead in what are usually considered to be important swing states—Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania—may prove to be the deciding factor in the 2024 election.
There are a few possible reasons for Trump’s present lead against Harris in the polls.
His messaging on subjects like crime, border security, and inflation, for starters, has struck a chord with a sizable block of voters. Furthermore, Trump has a clear edge because of his persistent popularity among Republicans and his tight hold on the GOP base. Much of the electorate has remained faithful to Trump, but Harris has found it difficult to win over Democrats with the same fervor.
Markets for political wagering are also beginning to reflect the increasing perception that Trump is winning. Polymarket’s odds show that Trump is currently leading Harris at 52%, with Harris trailing at 46%. These odds offer more information on how people see Trump’s strong position going into the closing weeks of the campaign, even though they are more erratic and subject to change.
Separately, renowned pollster Frank Luntz believes that Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris made some massive mistakes in her CNN interview.
The interview was promoted as a watershed event as it was her first interview as the official presidential candidate of the Democrat Party but the pollster said she was disappointed.
“I was not impressed as an observer and someone who’s expecting more from her with this much time to get prepared,” Luntz said before launching into a rapid-fire list of mistakes he believes Harris made.
“First, and I call it DOD, which is Day One Detail. She gave child tax credits, a housing credit. She should have had something for day one, for the first hour, the first day, the first week, the first month and the first year,” the pollster said. “It’s the most important thing voters are looking for to see whether you’re serious. She really didn’t itemize much more than her talking points.”
When she was questioned by CNN anchor Dana Bash about what she would do on her first day as president, she responded that she would “strengthen the middle class,” but did not give any details about how she would do that.
“Second, it’s not inflation. It’s affordability. And the fact is, food, fuel, housing and health care has become so much more expensive. She said she understood it, but she didn’t give ideas to address it and to solve it,” the pollster said. “Third, she emphasized repeatedly, ‘My values haven’t changed.’ Because she’s been accused of being a flip-flopper. It’s not values, that’s about her. It’s priorities, because that’s about all of us.”
“Number four, ‘You deserve.’ She talked once again as though it was still a convention speech. She did not itemize exactly what the people of the United States deserve in terms of their president, in terms of, in her case, her policies,” he said. “Number five, the C word. She talked about consensus and a little bit about common ground. It’s really common sense, because voters are not looking for an ideological president. They’re looking for someone who can get things done — a real record of results.”
“Sixth, in her attack of Trump, she should have said, ‘He promised, he failed, it’s time to give someone a chance to do a better job.’ Compared Trump’s record rather than just shots at him,” he said. “And number seven,’ how would you feel if your kids spoke to you the way Donald Trump speaks to America?’ It’s a simple rhetorical question. It’s her strongest criticism of Trump, I didn’t hear that last night.”
