New polling from swing states with 43 electoral votes up for grabs indicates that momentum is building for Donald Trump.
The Quinnipiac and Emerson surveys released on Tuesday show the former president leading the vice president in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, while they are tied in Pennsylvania.
If these numbers hold, Trump would secure 262 electoral votes, making Harris’s path to victory narrow, as it would hinge on winning Michigan and Wisconsin and ultimately pulling off a win in Pennsylvania, the New York Post reported, citing the latest data.
In North Carolina’s Quinnipiac poll, Trump leads Kamala Harris 49% to 47%, with his advantage primarily coming from men and white voters without college degrees. Among these groups, the GOP nominee has 59% and 66% support, respectively.
“Harris leads 56% to 40% with women overall, but Trump has tied her with white women, suggesting the novelty of a historic female presidential candidate of color isn’t resonating with this group,” The Post added.
Harris’s strongest demographic by far is Black voters, where she leads 90% to 2%, a figure that contradicts other surveys showing Trump gaining support among Black men.
Emerson’s poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 49% in the state among 850 likely voters surveyed on September 27 and 28. Notably, 9% of those planning to vote for Harris disapprove of the Biden administration’s performance. These results align with other polls from the Tar Heel State.
A Washington Post survey released Tuesday shows Trump leading by 2 points, while an East Carolina University poll released Monday also indicates a 2-point advantage for Trump. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump ahead by less than a percentage point, noted The Post.
In Georgia, Quinnipiac’s poll suggests Trump is on track for a victory that would rectify his narrow and contentious defeat in 2020 to Joe Biden. The former president leads 50% to 44%, with 71% of white voters and 78% of whites without college degrees supporting him.
Additionally, 92% of Trump voters and 91% of Harris voters indicate they won’t change their minds. The Quinnipiac poll in Georgia appears more favorable to the GOP than the RealClearPolitics average survey, which shows Trump ahead by just over a percentage point.
“Among 920 likely Arizona voters polled, Trump leads Harris 50% to 47% according to Emerson, giving him a slightly healthier lead than his 2.1% RCP polling average lead in the state,” The Post continued.
However, Trump doesn’t seem to have enough juice to be helping down-ballot GOP candidates. North Carolina GOP gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is trailing Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein by substantial amounts in the polls following a report he frequented porn sites and referred to himself as a “black Nazi,” which he has refuted.
And in Arizona, Democratic Rep. Reuben Gallego is leading Republican challenger Kari Lake by double digits as well, while it’s a different story in Pennsylvania. There, Republican Dave McCormick is surging against incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey as the GOP hopes to retake control of the Senate.
“These three states appear to be going Trump’s way, and at least one of the blue-wall states is up for grabs as well, per Emerson and RealClearPennsylvania,” The Post noted.
The sole vice presidential debate before the election, meanwhile, took place on Tuesday night in New York City between Ohio Republican Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz.
The two lawmakers wanted to introduce themselves to American voters before election day, which led to the event addressing a wide range of topics, from immigration to climate change to abortion.
During the debate, Elon Musk shared several critical posts on his X platform. In one, he defended Trump’s position on abortion, which the media continues to misrepresent.
“Could not be more clear that @realDonaldTrump WILL veto a national abortion ban. He has said it before many times, but this simple statement makes his position absolutely obvious and unequivocal,” Musk wrote.
