Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is leading Democrat Kamala Harris in the battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia, according to a new Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research USA poll released Monday.
And one group in particular may account for the good news for Trump in both swing states: white college graduates.
In North Carolina, Trump leads Harris 48% to 47%, and 47% to 45% in Georgia, according to FAU’s survey. The poll is the latest showing that Trump is on the receiving end of positive poll data heading into Tuesday night’s first presidential debate.
It comes in the aftermath of pollster Nate Silver showing Trump leading Harris in every battleground state. Also, the RealClearPolitics polling average also shows Trump with slight leads over Harris in North Carolina and Georgia.
In the FAU survey, Trump’s lead is buoyed by white college graduates — a demographic that may yet prove pivotal to the outcome of the toughest battleground states. The New York Post reported that Trump leads Harris 55% to 40% among the group in Georgia and 50% to 47% in North Carolina.
Harris leads Trump among independents in both states, however. Harris leads Trump 48% to 43% with unaffiliated voters in North Carolina and by 4 points, 44% to 40% in Georgia, according to the Post.
However, 10% of independents in Georgia say they’re undecided versus 8% of them in North Carolina, according to the Post.
Also in Trump’s favor, and suggestive of what some pundits see as an ebb in early support for Harris, is that the former president appears to score better with Democrats than Harris does with Republicans, according to the Post.
On balance, the polling points to a compelling horse race in the final weeks of a tough presidential fight, with the race tightening considerably since President Joe Biden stepped aside amid concerns over his age and stamina.
“The close distribution of support between the two major party candidates suggests that Georgia and North Carolina remain highly competitive,” said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science and co-director at FAU’s PolCom Lab. “Among likely voters, the undecided population, though small, could still play a crucial role in determining the outcome, particularly in a tight race such as this one.”
FAU surveyed 647 registered voters in Georgia and 692 in North Carolina from Sept. 5-6. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points for Georgia and +/- 3.7 percentage points for North Carolina with a 95% confidence level.
